Bayesian forecasting is a statistical technique that uses Bayes' theorem to update the probability of future events based on new, incoming data.
The project builds on an invitation from the NHS STW Integrated Care System to provide peer review and quality assurance for their modelling project ‘Forecasting and Simulation of Ambulance Demand to Support Emergency Care Reconfiguration. The new knowledge exchange initiative will focus on evaluating and enhancing the Bayesian forecasting and simulation methodologies used by NHS STW.
The project will strengthen the links between academic modelling expertise and real-world NHS operational decision-making, having a direct impact on healthcare planning and patient care. It also builds a foundation for future knowledge exchange projects, such as developing open-source reproducible modelling frameworks for regional health services and training sessions for NHS analysts.
The Think Wild Fund is a new initiative to help the mathematical sciences community trial bold, creative ideas for local knowledge exchange. The emphasis is on giving academics freedom to ‘think wild’ and try something new that needs modest funding to get off the ground.
Knowledge exchange forms an important part of the mathematics portfolio at the University of Greenwich. Dr Robyn Goldsmith, lecturer in Mathematics (Data Science), is working on the project, "Towards a Better System: Operational Research to improve Public Health Operations in Sussex" with partners NHS Sussex and the University of Sussex funded by Greenwich Research and Innovation’s KE4Impact fund. The project aims at exploring scope for using Operational Research techniques to aid decision-making and processes for Public Health Teams in Sussex. Potential impact of the collaboration includes improved access to NHS services and forecasting changes in service demand (due, for example, to an aging population).
Via the UK Knowledge Exchange Hub for Mathematical Sciences, Dr Ebrahim Patel (lecturer in Mathematics and Data Science) has secured a project with Edinburugh Airport on ‘Stand Demand Analysis’, which aims to minimise the time spent by planes on the ground, thus saving money and allowing for improved service and efficiency.
Also via the Hub, Dr Ana Paula Palacios is collaborating with Barworth Agriculture LTD to reduce the chance of potato fields being infested with the harmful Potato Cyst Nematode( PCN) pest. Currently, approximately half of potato fields are infected with PCD, costing the industry over £50 million annually. Using advanced probabilistic models, Dr Palacios is helping Barworth Agriculture LTD find a more accurate representation of distribution of the pest in farms, which will in turn allow for efficient interventions that will have positive economic and environmental impacts.
The Knowledge Exchange Hub for Mathematical Sciences Hub is part of the UK’s national Mathematical Sciences infrastructure and exists to promote, facilitate, and support knowledge exchange activities between academia and business, industry, and government. To find out more about the fantastic achievements and activities of the KE Hub since its launch in 2022, read their Start-Up Phase Report.
