The Local Labour Market Effects of Austerity

8th Oct 2025 12:30pm - 2:12pm

Greenwich Campus

KW216

Austerity, as it existed in the United Kingdom between 2010 and 2019, saw the best part of a decade of government policy devoted to fiscal consolidation. The governments of the day relied on the macroeconomic theory of 'expansionary fiscal contractions' to justify their programme of spending cuts, in which there are thought to be two mechanisms at play: an aggregate demand mechanism and a labour supply mechanism. In the first, fiscal consolidation stimulates the economy by improving private sector confidence and encouraging lower interest rates. In the second, cuts to in-work benefits, public sector employment, and public sector pay reduce the bargaining power of workers, reducing unit labour costs and thereby increasing employment. In this paper, we attempt to disentangle these demand and supply-side effects using the United Kingdom as a case study, using continuous treatment difference-in-differences models with district-level welfare cuts as the treatment variable.  We find that austerity reduced labour costs and increased employment rates, suggesting that the supply-side effects of austerity dominated any demand-side effects between 2010 and 2019.

Presenters:
Rob Calvert Jump and Thomas Rabensteiner

Location:
University of Greenwich, KW216

Teams (Online) details:

Meeting ID: 319 421 430 872 5
Passcode: N9eW6W66

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