Professor Mehmet Ugur BSc, MSc, PhD

Professor of Economics and Institutions

Key details

Mehmet Ugur

Professor Mehmet Ugur

Professor of Economics and Institutions


Since joining the University of Greenwich in 1990, Professor Mehmet Ugur has been involved in research, teaching and curriculum development at both undergraduate and postgraduate levels. He has acted as research coordinator, programme coordinator and senior management team member at the Department of Economics and International Business and as enterprise and research committee member in the Business Faculty.

Professor Ugur has led research projects funded by the European Commission, the Department for International Development (DFID), and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC). He has also acted as co-convenor for the Cochrane and Campbell Collaborations Economics Methods Group (CCEMG) from 2010-2015. Currently, he is Deputy Director of Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre (GPERC) and the Institute of Political Economy, Governance, Finance and Accountability (PEGFA) at the University of Greenwich Business Faculty.

Professor Ugur has taught open economy macroeconomics, international economics and finance, economics of the European union, monetary integration in Europe, European public policy, regulatory institutions of the world economy, and statistical methods for research. He is currently teaching applied econometrics within the MSc Economics programme and econometrics within the MPhil/PhD programme. He has also supervised and is still supervising PhD students working on economic growth, roles of governance institutions, income distribution, and innovation and technology diffusion. He has examined PhD theses internally at the University of Greenwich and externally at Essex, Keele, Leicester, Manchester and Warwick universities among others.

Professor Ugur has method specialism in meta-analysis, a statistical method of evidence synthesis in economics, public policy and medical research. He is a member of the Meta-Analysis of Economic Research Network (MAER-Net), an international network of scholars committed to improving economic science through meta-analysis. He coordinated and hosted MAER-Net's 2013 Colloquium at the University of Greenwich.

Professor Ugur has acted as editorial board member for academic journals and as advisory board member for research centres. His consultancy engagements included International Budget Partnership (Washington), Routledge (UK), and the Centre for Innovation and Competition-based Development Studies (Turkey).

Research / Scholarly interests

Professor Ugur investigates the interactions between governance, institutions and performance in various contexts, including innovation, technology diffusion, economic growth, income distribution, European Union policy making, and European network industries. In his work on institutional quality, Professor Ugur demonstrates that good governance institutions are conducive to better economic, political and corporate outcomes as a result reduced transaction costs and/or reduced scope for rent extraction by veto points.

In a review of one of his edited books (Does Economic Governance Matter? ), Professor Avinash Dixit of Princeton University has commented as follows: 'The editors give a thoughtful review of ideas and landmarks in the literature and an organizing framework … The whole will significantly advance our understanding of institutions and economic performance.'

Key funded projects

Evaluation of Research and Development (R&D) Expenditures, Firm Survival, Firm Growth and Employment: UK Evidence in the OECD Context  (ESRC grant reference: ES/K004824/1)

This project has addressed four research questions on the incentives for and economic consequences of R&D investment:

  • Does public support for R&D investment encourage firms to increase the level of privately funded R&D effort?
  • Does R&D intensity increase firm survival rates?
  • What are the effects of R&D intensity on employment creation?
  • What are the effects of knowledge (R&D) capital on firm productivity?

Innovative modelling and adherence to best practice in micro-econometric research has enabled us uncover a high degree of heterogeneity in the effect of public subsidies on business R&D and in the effects of the latter on firm performance in terms of survival, employment creation, and productivity growth. Particularly:

  • Public subsidies are conducive to additionality effects among small and young firms that account for about 10% of the subsidy allocations; but no additionality effects are observed among large and old firms that account for about 90% of the subsidy allocations.
  • The effect of R&D on firm survival follows an inverted-U pattern, indicating that the survival enhancing effect of R&D declines as R&D investment becomes riskier at higher levels of R&D intensity.
  • R&D intensity has a positive but decelerating effect on full-time jobs for R&D personnel (scientists and technicians); but the effect on non-R&D jobs is negative even though the adverse effect is decelerating.
  • The effect of knowledge (R&D) capital on productivity is relatively larger among firms in industries with higher concentration levels or among firms with some market power as a result of being science-based, specialised suppliers of technology or scale-intensive firms that increase the cost of new entry.

Effects of Innovation on Employment: Evidence Synthesis

This project was partly funded by the Department for International Development (DFID). The aim of the project was to provide a synthesis of the empirical and qualitative evidence on the relationship between types of innovation (process and product innovation) and levels of employment, paying attention to skill levels, gender, and the level of aggregation/analysis at enterprise, industry and macro levels.

Both narrative synthesis and meta-analysis findings indicate that: (i) the effect of process innovation on skilled labour employment is positive but small; (ii) the effect of process and product innovation on total (skilled and unskilled labour) employment is positive but too small to be practically significant; and (iii) the effect of process and product innovation on sector-level employment as opposed to enterprise-level employment is negative but too small to be practically significant. These findings indicate innovation in low-income countries tends to be skills-biased and employment creation by innovators may be offset by job losses in non-innovative enterprises.

Effects of Corruption on Economic Growth: Evidence Synthesis

This project was also partly funded by the Department for International Development (DFID). Its objective was to evaluate the impact of corruption on economic growth theoretically and empirically with a view to: (a) providing a narrative synthesis of the types of corruption and the causal links between corruption and growth; (b) providing a meta-synthesis of the empirical evidence on the direct and indirect effects of corruption on growth; and (c) mapping the narrative synthesis with the meta-analysis with a view to deriving policy conclusions and point out potential avenues for further research.

The review reports that corruption does have a negative and genuine effect on growth. This aggregate result is obtained after controlling for growth measures, corruption data sources and country types. Indirect effects of corruption on growth tend to be larger than direct effects. In addition, corruption is associated with a negative effect on growth in both low-income countries and middle- or high-income countries.

The review also reports that there is a prima facie case for policy interventions aimed at reducing the incidence of corruption in both low-income and mixed countries. However, economic gains from reducing corruption in low-income countries can be increased if anti-corruption interventions are combined with a wider set of policies aimed at improving institutional quality and providing correct incentives for investment in human capital. This systematic review also indicates that levels of corruption in low-income countries may be higher than non-low-income countries, but the latter stand to gain more from reducing the incidence of corruption.

Innovation, Firm Dynamics and Productivity: Special issue of the Economics of Innovation and New Technology

This project builds on a workshop held at the University of Greenwich in June 2019. Organised by Professor Ugur and Professor Marco Vivarelli (Director of the Department of Economic Policy, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano), the conference brought together several papers that have reported novel findings on the sources of hetehrogeneity and non-linearities in the effects of  innovation investments on firm performance in terms of survival, employment growth  and productivity. These papers have been brought together as a special issue of the Journal. The project aims to contribute to the debate along three paths. First, establishes the need to for theoretical perspectives and empirical modeling that allow for heterogeneity in the effects of R&D/innovation on firm performance. Secondly, it draws attention to recent modelling and estimation effort that reveals novel sources of heterogeneity, non-linearity and volatility in the gains from R&D/innovation, particularly in terms of its effects on firm survival and productivity. Thirdly, it links the emergent findings with those from prior reviews to demonstrate how the state of the art is evolving and with what implications for future research.

Recent publications

Article

Ugur, Mehmet and , Vivarelli, Marco (2020), Innovation, firm survival and productivity: the state of the art. Taylor & Francis. In: , , , . Taylor & Francis, Economics of Innovation and New Technology . pp. 1-35 ISSN: 1043-8599 (Print), 1476-8364 (Online) (doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10438599.2020.1828509) NB Item availability restricted.

Trushin, Eshref and , Ugur, Mehmet (2020), Intra-industry firm heterogeneity, sub-optimal adaptation and exit hazard: a fitness landscape approach to firm survival and learning. Taylor & Francis. In: , , , . Taylor & Francis, Economics of Innovation and New Technology . pp. 1-22 ISSN: 1043-8599 (Print), 1476-8364 (Online) (doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/10438599.2020.1766655) NB Item availability restricted.

Ugur, Mehmet , Churchill, Sefa Awaworyi, Luong, Hoang M. (2019), What do we know about R&D spillovers and productivity? Meta-analysis evidence on heterogeneity and statistical power. Elsevier. In: , , , . Elsevier, Research Policy, 49: 103866 (1) ISSN: 0048-7333 (Print), 1873-7625 (Online) (doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2019.103866).

Esiyok, Bulent and , Ugur, Mehmet (2017), Spatial dependence in the growth process and implications for convergence rate: evidence on Vietnamese provinces. Taylor & Francis. In: , , , . Taylor & Francis, Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 23 (1) . pp. 51-65 ISSN: 1354-7860 (Print), 1469-9648 (Online) (doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/13547860.2017.1351764).

Churchill, Sefa Awaworyi , Ugur, Mehmet, Yew, Siew Ling (2017), Government education expenditures and economic growth: a meta-analysis. De Gruyter. In: , , , . De Gruyter, B. E. Journal of Macroeconomics ISSN: 2194-6116 (Print), 1935-1690 (Online) (doi: https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2016-0109).

Ugur, Mehmet and , Mitra, Arup (2017), Technology adoption and employment in less developed countries: a mixed-method systematic review. Elsevier. In: , , , . Elsevier, World Development, 96 . pp. 1-18 ISSN: 0305-750X (Print), (doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.03.015).

Ugur, Mehmet , Churchill, Sefa Awaworyi, Solomon, Edna (2017), Technological innovation and employment in derived labour demand models: a hierarchical meta-regression analysis. John Wiley & Sons Ltd.. In: , , , . John Wiley & Sons Ltd., Journal of Economic Surveys, 32 (1) . pp. 50-82 ISSN: 0950-0804 (Print), 1467-6419 (Online) (doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12187).

Churchill, Sefa Awaworyi , Ugur, Mehmet, Yew, Siew Ling (2016), Does government size affect per-capita income growth? A Hierarchical meta-regression analysis. Wiley. In: , , , . Wiley, Economic Record, 93 (300) . pp. 142-171 ISSN: 0013-0249 (Print), 1475-4932 (Online) (doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4932.12307).

Ugur, Mehmet , Trushin, Eshref, Solomon, Edna, Guidi, Francesco (2016), R&D and productivity in OECD firms and industries: a hierarchical meta-regression analysis. Elsevier B.V.. In: , , , . Elsevier B.V., Research Policy, 45 (10) . pp. 2069-2086 ISSN: 0048-7333 (Print), (doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2016.08.001).

Ugur, Mehmet , Trushin, Eshref, Solomon, Edna, University of Greenwich Business School , Durham University Business School (2016), A firm-level dataset for analyzing entry, exit, employment and R&D expenditures in the UK: 1997–2012. Elsevier. In: , , , . Elsevier, Data in Brief, 8 . pp. 153-157 ISSN: 2352-3409 (Print), 2352-3409 (Online) (doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2016.05.028) NB Item availability restricted.

Ugur, Mehmet , Trushin, Eshref, Solomon, Edna, University of Greenwich Business School , Durham University Business School (2016), Inverted-U relationship between R&D intensity and survival: evidence on scale and complementarity effects in UK data. Elsevier. In: , , , . Elsevier, Research Policy, 45 (7) . pp. 1474-1492 ISSN: 0048-7333 (Print), (doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2016.04.007).

Guidi, Francesco , Savva, Christos S., Ugur, Mehmet (2016), Dynamic co-movements and diversification benefits: The case of the Greater China region, the UK and the US equity markets. Elsevier. In: , , , . Elsevier, Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 35 . pp. 59-78 ISSN: 1042-444X (Print), (doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mulfin.2016.04.002).

Esiyok, Bulent and , Ugur, Mehmet (2015), A spatial regression approach to FDI in Vietnam: province-level evidence. World Scientific Publishing. In: , , , . World Scientific Publishing, The Singapore Economic Review (ser) ISSN: 0217-5908 (Print), 1793-6837 (Online) (doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S0217590815501155).

Guidi, Francesco and , Ugur, Mehmet (2014), An analysis of South-Eastern European stock markets: evidence on cointegration and portfolio diversification benefits. Elsevier. In: , , , . Elsevier, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 30 . pp. 119-136 ISSN: 1042-4431 (Print), (doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2014.01.007).

Ugur, Mehmet and , (2013), Corruption’s direct effects on per-capita income growth: a meta-analysis. John Wiley & Sons Ltd.. In: , , , . John Wiley & Sons Ltd., Journal of Economic Surveys, 28 (3) . pp. 472-490 ISSN: 0950-0804 (Print), 1467-6419 (Online) (doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/joes.12035).

Ugur, Mehmet and , (2013), Europeanization, EU conditionality, and governance quality: Empirical evidence on Central and Eastern European countries. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.. In: , , , . John Wiley & Sons, Inc., International Studies Quarterly, 57 (1) . pp. 41-51 ISSN: 0020-8833 (Print), 1468-2478 (Online) (doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12035).

Book section

Ugur, Mehmet and , (2019), Innovation, technology adoption and employment: Evidence synthesis. Springer. In: , , In: Klaus F. Zimmermann (ed.), Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economic. Springer, Cham, Switzerland . pp. 1-23 . ISBN: 9783319573656 (doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57365-6_2-1).

Conference item

Working paper

Ugur, Mehmet and , Vivarelli, Marco (2020), Innovation, firm survival and productivity: The state of the art. University of Greenwich. In: , , , . University of Greenwich, (doi: https://ideas.repec.org/p/gpe/wpaper/28308.html).

Ugur, Mehmet , Solomon, Edna, Zeynalov, Ayaz (2020), Leverage, Competition, and Financial Distress Hazard: Non-Monotonic Effects in the Presence of Agency Costs. EconPapers. In: , , , . EconPapers, (doi: https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/gpewpaper/28304.htm) NB Item availability restricted.

Ugur, Mehmet , Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa, Luong, Hoang Minh (2018), What do we know about R&D spillovers and productivity? Meta-analysis on heterogeneity and statistical power. University of Greenwich Business School. In: , , , . University of Greenwich Business School, London (doi: https://www.gre.ac.uk/business/research/centres/gperc/pubreports/greenwich-papers-in-political-economy).

Ugur, Mehmet and , Trushin, Eshref (2018), Asymmetric information and heterogeneous effects of R&D subsidies: evidence on R&D investment and employment of R&D personel. University of Greenwich Business School. In: , , , . University of Greenwich Business School, London (doi: https://www.gre.ac.uk/business/research/centres/gperc/pubreports/greenwich-papers-in-political-economy).

Ugur, Mehmet and , Trushin, Eshref (2018), Sources of heterogeneity in the impact of subsidies on R&D investment: Evidence from R&D-active UK firms. University of Greenwich. In: , , , . University of Greenwich, (doi: ) NB Item availability restricted.

Trushin, Eshref and , Ugur, Mehmet (2018), Ecosystem complexity, firm learning and survival: UK evidence on intra-industry age and size diversity as exit hazards. University of Greenwich Business School. In: , , , . University of Greenwich Business School, London (doi: http://www.gre.ac.uk/business/research/centres/gperc/pubreports/greenwich-papers-in-political-economy).

Ugur, Mehmet and , (2018), Innovation, job creation and productivity: implications for public policy. University of Greenwich Business School. In: , , , . University of Greenwich Business School, London (doi: http://www.gre.ac.uk/business/research/centres/gperc/pubreports/gperc-policy-briefs).

Ugur, Mehmet and , (2016), Denial of academic freedom exposed: the case of academics for peace in Turkey. University of Greenwich Business School. In: , , , . University of Greenwich Business School, London (doi: http://www.gre.ac.uk/business/research/centres/gperc).

Ugur, Mehmet and , (2016), Modeling growth: exogenous, endogenous and Schumpeterian growth models. University of Greenwich Business School. In: , , , . University of Greenwich Business School, London, UK (doi: http://www.gre.ac.uk/business/research/centres/gperc/pubreports/greenwich-papers-in-political-economy).

Awawoyi, Sefa , Ugur, Mehmet, Yew, Siew Ling (2015), Does government size affect per-capita income growth? A hierarchical meta-regression analysis. University of Greenwich. In: , , , . University of Greenwich, London (doi: ).

Churchill, Sefa Awawoyi , Yew, Siew Ling, Ugur, Mehmet (2015), Effects of government education and health expenditures on economic growth: a meta-analysis. University of Greenwich. In: , , , . University of Greenwich, London (doi: ).

Solomon, Edna M. , Ugur, Mehmet, Guidi, Francesco, Trushin, Esref (2015), Variations in the effect of R&D investment on firm productivity: UK evidence. University of Greenwich. In: , , , . University of Greenwich, London (doi: ).

Ugur, Mehmet and , (2015), On Turkish elections and the political economy of state-orchestrated violence. University of Greenwich. In: , , , . University of Greenwich, London (doi: ).

Ugur, Mehmet and , (2015), The Paris attack: people are made to pay for disastrous government policies. University of Greenwich. In: , , , . University of Greenwich, London (doi: ).

Ugur, Mehmet , Trushin, Eshref, Solomon, Edna M., Guidi, Francesco (2015), Inverted-U relationship between innovation and survival: evidence from firm-level UK data. University of Greenwich. In: , , , . University of Greenwich, London (doi: ).

Ugur, Mehmet , Trushin, Esref, Solomon, Edna M. (2015), UK and EU subsidies and private R&D investment: Is there input additionality?. University of Greenwich. In: , , , . University of Greenwich, London (doi: ).

Ugur, Mehmet , Trushin, Esref, Solomon, Edna M., Guidi, Francesco (2015), R&D and productivity in OECD firms and industries: a hierarchical meta-regression analysis. University of Greenwich. In: , , , . University of Greenwich, London (doi: ).