21st October 2025: PEGFA Seminar: Lobina & Gray
The seminar featured Emanuele Lobina and Conor Gray, who presented their research on “Towards a history of global water development? Against cognitive dissonance”
The full summary and abstract of this seminar can be found here.
21st October 2025: PEGFA Seminar: Donal Brown
The seminar featured Donal Brown, who presented their research on “Net Zero in Peril? The case for a new ‘low carbon social contract’ in the UK”
We study how labour market conditions affect unionisation decisions. Tight labour markets might spur unionisation, e.g., by reducing the threat of unemployment after management opposition or employer retaliation in response to a unionisation attempt. Tightness might also weaken unionisation by providing attractive outside alternatives to engaging in costly unionisation. Drawing on a large-scale, representative survey experiment among US workers, we show that an increase in worker beliefs about labour market tightness moderately raises support for union activity. Effect sizes are small as they imply that moving from trough to peak of the business cycle increases workers’ probability of voting for a union by one percentage point. To study equilibrium effects, we draw on three quasi-experimental research designs using data from across US states and counties over several decades. We find no systematic effect of changes in aggregate labour market tightness on union membership, union elections, and strikes. Overall, our results challenge the notion that labour market tightness significantly drives US unionisation.
The full summary and abstract of this seminar can be found here.
16th October 2025: PEGFA Seminar: Patrick Nüß
In this seminar, Patrick Nüß discussed how labour market conditions affect unionisation decisions. Tight labour markets might spur unionisation, e.g., by reducing the threat of unemployment after management opposition or employer retaliation in response to a unionisation attempt. Tightness might also weaken unionisation by providing attractive outside alternatives to engaging in costly unionisation. Drawing on a large-scale, representative survey experiment among US workers, we show that an increase in worker beliefs about labour market tightness moderately raises support for union activity. Effect sizes are small, implying that moving from the trough to the peak of the business cycle increases workers’ probability of voting for a union by one percentage point. To study equilibrium effects, we draw on three quasi-experimental research designs using data from across US states and counties over several decades. We find no systematic effect of changes in aggregate labour market tightness on union membership, union elections, and strikes. Overall, our results challenge the notion that labour market tightness significantly drives US unionisation.
The full summary and abstract of this seminar can be found here.
8th October 2025: PEGFA Seminar: Calvert-Jump & Rabensteiner
The seminar featured Dr Rob Calvert-Jump and Dr Thomas Rabensteiner, who presented their research on “The Local Labour Market Effects of Austerity.”
Their presentation examined how UK austerity policies from 2010 to 2019 affected employment and labour costs. Drawing on the theory of ‘expansionary fiscal contractions,’ they investigated both demand- and supply-side mechanisms using continuous treatment difference-in-differences models, with district-level welfare cuts as the treatment variable.
Their findings showed that austerity reduced labour costs and increased employment rates, suggesting that supply-side effects dominated over demand-side impacts during this period.
The full summary and abstract of this seminar can be found here.
8th October 2025: PEGFA Seminar: Michail Giannoulakis
In this seminar, Dr Michail Giannoulakis presented his paper “NPL Spillovers in Europe: Credit Risk Contagion Mechanisms.”
The research explored the interconnectedness of non-performing loans (NPLs) across 30 European countries, including the UK, using the Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index. By applying a linear VAR model of order 2 and Lanne-Nyberg variance decomposition to 12-period-ahead forecast errors (2010Q1–2022Q2), the study uncovered a high total spillover index, signalling strong credit risk linkages throughout Europe.
Dr Giannoulakis highlighted that the evolution of NPLs after the financial crisis reflects how effectively each country managed the turmoil, with stronger economies becoming net transmitters of spillovers. The findings underscore the deep relationship between macroeconomic stability and credit risk across the region.
The full summary and abstract of this seminar can be found here.
The full paper can be accessed here
25th March 2025: PEGFA Seminar Series 2024/25: Oyvat & Arrieta Paredes
The final 2024-25 PEGFA Research Seminar of the year was hosted by PEGFA speakers Dr Cem Oyvat and Dr Mary-Paz Arrieta-Paredes.
Dr Oyvat discussed 'Minimum Wages in a High-Inflation Economy: The case of Turkey', and Dr Arrieta-Parades' presentation shared research on 'Financing the adoption of green innovations in British SMEs: Is the government’s Net Zero 2050 policy lowering their carbon footprint?'.
The full summary and abstract of this seminar can be found here.
13th March 2025: PEGFA Seminar Series 2024/25: Ugur & Nikolaidi
The third PEGFA Research Seminar of the term was hosted by PEGFA speakers Prof. Mehmet Ugur and Dr Maria Nikolaidi.
Prof. Ugur shared research on 'Democracy, markups and economic growth: Dose-response evidence from continuous treatment estimations'. Dr Nikolaidi explored 'Incorporating climate into the Eurosystem collateral framework'.
The full summary and abstract of this seminar can be found here.
25th February 2025: PEGFA Seminar Series 2024/25: Shah & Coronado Arciniegas
The second of the PEGFA Research Seminar of the term was hosted by PEGFA speakers Dr Shazerinna Shah and Jose Alejandro Coronado Arciniegas.
Dr Shazerinna Shah discussed 'CEO-Board Ethic Ties and Earnings Management', whilst Jose Alejandro Coronado Arciniegas' presentation focused on 'As You Like It: Digital Platforms, Attention Rents and Statistical Equilibrium'.
The full summary and abstract of this seminar can be found here.
13th February 2025: PEGFA Seminar Series 2024/25: Yurchenko & Shi
The first PEGFA Research Seminar of the term was presented by PEGFA speakers Yuliya Yurchenko and Linxi Shi.
Yuliya Yurchenko's seminar discussed 'historic and current measures of inequality in Ukraine', and Linxi Shi presented on 'Interactions between Institutional Logics and Agent Autonomy behind The Diverse Trajectories of PMM Reforms in Public Hospitals'.